The school buses are back. Mornings have that sweatshirt snap. Orchards in Warwick, Goshen, Florida, and New Paltz are packed, patios at Hudson Valley wineries are full, and Bethel Woods still hums on late weekends. The conversation we hear at farm stands and post-game meetups isn’t “Can we time the market?” It’s “How does this market fit into our five-year plan?” Good question—and the answer is clearer than the headlines.

The Short Version

• Mortgage rates: sitting in the mid-6% range.

• Payment reality: every 0.25% change in rate shifts a 30-year payment by about $17/month per $100,000 borrowed. Small by itself—meaningful once you add taxes, insurance, and utilities.

• Direction into New Year’s: steady to slightly higher prices (roughly +1% to +3% from here), more choices than last year in many Orange micro-markets, and longer market time for homes that over-reach.

What the Closing Prices Say (the check clears here)

We love pending data for “where it’s headed,” but closings tell you what buyers actually paid.

Orange County, NY (vs August last year)

• Median sales price (closed): up ~3.6%

• 3-month rolling average (Jun–Aug): up ~1.7%

• Inventory: up ~22%

• New listings: up ~5%

• Under-contract count: about flat, down ~1%

• Closings (count): down ~9%

Today’s Median Sales Price: ~$460,000

Sullivan County, NY (vs August last year)

• Median sales price (closed): up ~17.0%

• 3-month rolling average (Jun–Aug): up ~12.9%

• Inventory: up ~22%

• New listings: up ~5%

• Under-contract count: up ~15%

• Closings (count): up ~19%

Today’s Median Sales Price: ~$365,000

Note: Momentum is strongest around Swinging Bridge Reservoir, Rock Hill/Forestburgh, and the Delaware River corridor (Narrowsburg, Callicoon, Eldred/Barryville). Wolf Lake (private) remains a premium micro-market. Different parts of Sullivan bring vastly different housing data with it.

The Story on the Ground (where the weekend tours happen)

Orange County: more choice, sharper strategy

Saturday mornings in Warwick village still stack showings, but it’s not a sprint. Families driving in from Greenwood Lake or Chester compare monthly carrying costs more than list prices. In Washingtonville/Blooming Grove and Woodbury/Highland Mills, the listings that launch clean—right price, right photos, right copy—earn momentum in week one. Higher-end plays in Tuxedo Park, Cornwall-on-Hudson, Goshen and Warwick still sell, but the “why now” story matters.

What’s working:

• Tight, reality-based list prices

• Great media (photos, floor plan, short video)

• Payment-friendly terms (closing credit or a temporary buydown) to widen the buyer pool

Sullivan County: lifestyle + logistics

In the Catskills curve—from Livingston Manor and Roscoe to Wurtsboro/Mamakating and Bloomingburg—buyers want weekend-able, well-situated homes. Around Swinging Bridge Reservoir, the favorite listings pair clean renovations with everyday practicality (utilities, plowing, realistic taxes). Along the Delaware River, land and lifestyle seal the deal when the price tells the truth.

What’s working:

• Turnkey condition or crisp pricing for projects

• Clear narrative on utilities, access, and carrying costs

• Proof of value: nearby pendings and very recent closings

If You’re Selling (both counties)

1. Win the first 14 days. Pricing, photos, copy, and showing plan all need to agree—don’t “test” the market.

2. Tune-ups beat later price cuts. Paint, lighting, floor refresh, and light landscaping usually protect your net better than slashing later.

3. Sell the payment. A seller-paid credit or temporary rate buydown can make your home the obvious choice in a mid-6% world. (No, a temporary buydown doesn’t prevent the buyer from refinancing later.)

If You’re Buying (both counties)

1. Shop wide, act narrow. From Warwick/Goshen/Monroe/Newburgh/Middletown to Bethel/Narrowsburg/Callicoon/Rock Hill, see enough to know when the right one appears—and then move.

2. Lock smart. Lock a rate you can live with; if long rates drift lower, revisit.

3. Negotiate the monthly. Sometimes a seller credit saves you more each month than the same dollars off the price.

Why Our Region Feels Different Than the Headlines

A few national markets—especially parts of the Sun Belt and West—have posted bigger declines from 2022 peaks. The New York metro has been steadier in 2025, which is why the Hudson Valley hasn’t seen those double-digit drops. Local fundamentals + realistic pricing = resilience.

FAQs

Are prices going up or down?
Into New Year’s: prices steady to slightly up (+1%–3%); longer market time when list prices overreach.

Why look at closing prices and pending prices?
Pending tells you where the market is headed; closing confirms where it landed.

Will a temporary buydown trap me?
No. It lowers the buyer’s early payments via a funded escrow. If the buyer refinances before it ends, unused funds typically reduce the payoff.

Want a 1-page Price & Payment Brief for your address—comps, today’s rate scenarios, and a 14-day listing plan?
Message us “BRIEF” or call 845-237-2368.