Early buses, crisp mornings, apple lines in Warwick, Goshen, Florida, New Paltz, and music nights at Bethel Woods—fall is here. The conversation we keep hearing:

“We’re heading south—Florida, Delaware, or the Carolinas. When do we list here, and when do we buy there?”

This guide answers that, with local proofs and a simple timing playbook.

Key Stats

Orange County, NY (vs. August last year)

• Closed (sold) median price: +3.6%

• 3-month rolling average (Jun–Aug): +1.7%

• Homes for sale: ~+22%

• New listings: ~+5%

• Under-contract count: about flat (~–1%)

• Closings (count): ~–9%

• Under-contract “anchor” today: ~$460,000

Sullivan County, NY (vs. August last year)

• Closed (sold) median price: +17.0%

• 3-month rolling average (Jun–Aug): +12.9%

• Under-contract “anchor” today: ~$365,000

Where momentum lives: Swinging Bridge Reservoir, Rock Hill/Forestburgh, the Delaware River corridor (Narrowsburg, Callicoon, Eldred/Barryville). Wolf Lake (private) remains premium.

Rates: mid-6% range. Every 0.25% rate change ≈ $17/month per $100k financed. Small by itself—meaningful once you add taxes, insurance, utilities.

How to Time It (Sell Here, Buy There)

Listing in the Hudson Valley (Orange & Sullivan)

• Early Fall (now → mid-Oct): motivated buyers + fresh inventory. Launch clean: right price, pro media, tight copy.

• Holidays (late Nov–Dec): quieter but serious. Unique/turnkey homes can still move.

• “Second Spring” (late Feb → May): biggest buyer pool. Use Q4 for paint, lighting, floors, landscaping—then launch.

Seller edge: Sell the payment, not just the price. A seller credit or temporary buydown widens your buyer pool. (Temp buydowns don’t block refinancing; unused escrow typically reduces payoff if the buyer refis early.)

Buying Down South (Florida • Delaware • the Carolinas)

Florida (not one market)

• Choice vs. leverage: most choice Jan–Mar; often more leverage late spring → summer.

• Texture: cooling is most visible in South & Southwest FL (esp. condos/higher-fee buildings). Tampa/JAX modestly softer; Orlando mixed; Panhandle pockets (e.g., Pensacola) still firm.

• Budgeting must-haves: home, wind, flood insurance + HOA/condo fees where applicable.

Delaware (Lewes/Rehoboth, Sussex County)

• Why it pencils: low property taxes + no sales tax help the monthly.

• Timing: Spring for selection; late summer for price conversations on lingerers.

The Carolinas (Charlotte, Raleigh, Greenville, Charleston)

• Market feel: more inventory than 2023; fewer bidding wars; top-tier listings still move.

• Timing: Spring/Fall are prime across most metros.

Three Move-Out Paths (Pick Your Comfort Level)

1. Sell → Then Buy (lowest risk): Rent-back 30–60 days or short-term stay; arrive down south with funds in hand.

2. Buy → Then Sell (fastest move): Bridge loan/HELOC/cash to secure the southern home; sell HV afterward.

3. Same-Week Close (tight choreography): Align closings within 3–5 days; keep a backup plan (storage, pets, short-term rental).

Pro tip: On your southern offer, negotiate seller credits (closing costs / temp buydown). Credits often improve the monthly more than the same dollars off price.

“Show Me the Monthly” (No Jargon)

• Monthly carry = mortgage + taxes + insurance (+ HOA/condo, if any) + utilities.

• Ask us for three scenarios (today’s rate, –0.25%, +0.25%), with/without credits and a temp buydown, plus a refi break-even.

FAQs

Are prices going up or down here?
Mostly steady to slightly up into year-end. Orange closed medians +3.6% (3-mo avg +1.7%); Sullivan +17.0% (3-mo avg +12.9%).

Why use closing prices, not just pendings?
Pending = direction; closing = confirmation of what buyers truly paid.

Do temporary buydowns block refinancing?
No. The note rate doesn’t change, and unused buydown funds typically reduce payoff if you refi early.

When’s the best time to buy in Florida?
Shop Jan–Mar for choice; consider late spring → summer for leverage—always price in insurance and HOA/condo realities.