Is the Orange and Sullivan County NY Real Estate Market Still Hot in 2026?

By Brian Caplicki  ·  Caplicki Home Team at Keller Williams Hudson Valley United  ·  Updated October 28, 2026  ·  12 min read

This October, 46 out of 100 Orange County sellers got their full asking price. That is the lowest of the last seven Octobers, and in 2021 it was 66. Buyers did not leave and prices did not fall. What changed is who can still stretch, and the answer is not the people at the bottom.

On this page

• Why October, and why that is harder than it sounds
• Is the Orange County housing market still hot?
• Seven Octobers in one table
• What one cent actually means
• What is happening on the market right now
• Which houses are losing their asking price
• How Sullivan County compares
• Are Orange County home prices going down?
• If you are selling
• If you are buying
• What this data cannot tell you
• The bottom line
• Orange and Sullivan County NY real estate FAQ

People have been asking us some version of this all autumn. Is it still hot. Is it still good. Did the market finally turn.

So we counted. Every single family house that closed in Orange County this October, and the same 27 days in each of the six Octobers before it, back through the boom.

Why October, and why that is harder than it sounds

Here is something most market reports will not tell you. In New York, a sale takes a long time to finish. Contract, attorney review, title, the bank. In Orange County a sale takes 63 days to get from signed contract to closing, and that has not moved in four years.

So a house that closed this October was agreed in late July or early August. Every report built on closed sales, including this one, is describing a market that is about two months old. That is not a flaw in the data. It is how New York works.

Which is why we do two things. We look at October on its own, because it is the freshest settled month there is, rather than blending it into a quarter and losing it. And we look at what is happening on the market right now, which is further down this page.

Is the Orange County housing market still hot?

By the count of people buying, yes. Orange County signed 2,194 contracts in the first ten months of this year, against 2,131 last year and 2,263 the year before. October on its own tells the same story, a little below last year and a little above the year before.

That is the same market, give or take. Buyers did not leave. Anyone telling you Orange County has gone quiet is not looking at the contract counts.

Seven Octobers in one table

What has changed is how often a seller gets the price they ask. Here is every October since the market went mad.

Out of every 100 houses sold in October, how many got their full asking price

Orange County NY, single family, closed October 1 to 27 of each year. Source: OneKey MLS.

Orange County NY, single family closings, October 1 to 27 of each year

Source: OneKey MLS, Orange County, NY, single family only, closed between October 1 and October 27 in each year, pulled October 27 and 28, 2026. The window stops on the 27th because that is the day the 2026 data was pulled, so the same 27 days are used in every year and the last few days of the month are left out of all of them. Sales under $50,000 excluded. "Asking price" is the original list price on that listing.

Read the third column down. 2021 is the one everyone remembers, when two out of three sellers got their price and the typical house sold for more than it asked. Then 2022, the autumn mortgage rates first went through 7 percent, and it fell off a cliff.

Now look at what happened next. 2022 fixed itself. Within a year it was almost all the way back.

That is the part worth sitting with. We have been roughly here before, and last time the market repaired itself in twelve months. This time it has not. Four years down, and no bounce.

What one cent actually means

The fourth column says the same thing in money. A typical Orange County house used to sell for the full dollar it asked. For the last two Octobers it has not.

One cent sounds like nothing, and it is not a one percent price cut. That column stays at a full dollar for exactly as long as most sellers get everything they ask. The moment it reads 99 cents, most of them no longer do. It is a tipping point, not a trim.

The fifth column is the same story from the seller's side. Sellers who cut their price before a buyer ever made an offer have roughly doubled since 2021, and this October is the highest of the seven years.

What is happening on the market right now

That is the lagged picture. Here is the live one, and it is the number we watch most closely.

Of the roughly a thousand single family houses for sale in Orange County right now, 41 out of every 100 have already cut their asking price. The typical cut is $30,000.

That is not a forecast. Those are reductions that have already happened, on houses that have not found a buyer yet. They will show up in closed sales around the turn of the year.

One more thing from this week. On October 28 the Federal Reserve held its rate steady, after raising it in September for the first time in three years. The Federal Reserve does not set mortgage rates. It sets the weather around them, and the 30 year fixed has climbed every month since March, from just under 6 percent to a shade over 7.

Which houses are losing their asking price

Not evenly, and this is the part worth your attention. We sorted the sales by what the house was asking.

Out of every 100 houses sold, how many got their full asking price

How to read it: of the Orange County houses that were asking under $350,000, 51 out of every 100 sold for their full asking price in 2020, and 45 out of every 100 did this autumn. Each row is one slice of the market, followed across seven years. Source: OneKey MLS, Orange County, NY, single family, closed August 1 to October 27 of each year. This table uses the wider August to October window so that every cell holds enough sales to mean something, between 33 and 708. The bands are fixed dollar amounts, so every year is measured the same way. As prices rise the under $350,000 band holds fewer houses each year, 708 sales in 2020 against 131 now, so part of its fall is the band shrinking.

Of the four bands, the one asking under $350,000 is the only one now below where it stood in 2020. The other three are at or above their 2020 level, and this is that band's worst reading of the seven years.

So the pressure is landing where buyers have the least room to absorb it. The households stretching hardest to buy are the ones who stopped stretching.

We also ran the same count separately in each of the 11 school districts with enough sales to measure. The direction held in every one, so this is not one town pulling the county around. What each district has actually done on price is on our Orange County home values page, updated separately.

How Sullivan County compares

We never blend the two counties into one figure, because Orange is about four fifths of the sales and a blended number would describe Sullivan not at all. Measured on its own, Sullivan is a different market, and it has been one the whole time.

Sullivan County NY, single family, closed August 1 to October 27 of each year

Source: OneKey MLS, Sullivan County, NY, single family only, closed August 1 to October 27 in each year. This county uses the wider August to October window because October on its own holds only 50 to 120 Sullivan sales a year, too few to read. Sales under $50,000 excluded. On the same window and the same measure, Orange County reads 49 out of 100 in 2026, at 99.6 cents and $272 per square foot.

Three things stand out.

Sullivan sellers have never typically got their asking price. Even at the 2021 peak fewer than half of them did, against two thirds in Orange. The typical Sullivan house has sold below its asking price in every one of these seven years. The typical Orange County house did not do that until last year.

Sullivan stepped down a year earlier, then stopped. It dropped sharply in 2025 and has sat flat since. Orange is still sliding. The two counties are not moving together, which is exactly why we do not average them.

Sullivan prices rose faster. Up about 82 percent a square foot in six years, against about 64 percent in Orange.

The practical consequence is that a Sullivan house priced on Orange County expectations is mispriced from the first day. A number half of Orange sellers would get is one only about a quarter of Sullivan sellers ever get.

Are Orange County home prices going down?

No, and people get this backwards. Look at the last column of the seven year table. Price per square foot went up in every single one of those years, and it did not even fall in 2022.

Hold both facts at once. Buyers are paying more per square foot every year, and fewer of them are paying the full asking price to do it. Asking prices rose faster than sale prices did. That is where the gap came from: not sellers asking less, but buyers agreeing to less of it.

If you are selling

Set the price where buyers already are. Start from what houses your size in your school district have actually sold for, per square foot. Not what the house down the road is asking. What it sold for. Those figures, district by district, are on our home values page.

If your house sits in the lower half of this market, that has gone from useful advice to load bearing. That is where the room to reach has disappeared. And with 41 out of 100 houses on the market already discounted, a high opening price does not buy you negotiating room. It buys you company.

How we take a house to market, and what we do in the first two weeks, is set out on our marketing plan page.

If you are buying

There is more room than there was, and most of it is at the bottom of the market. More than half of Orange County sellers now take less than they asked, and that has not been true in the seven years we counted.

But how far a seller comes down has not changed in four years, about 5 percent, so an offer far below that is testing the market rather than reading it. Almost half of houses here still get full asking, and that mostly costs you the house.

The better use of this data is picking which house to chase. A house priced in line with what its neighbors of the same size sold for is one where your offer has to compete. A house priced well above that is one where the seller has further to come down. Our Orange County community pages are the place to start if you are still choosing a town.

What this data cannot tell you

Closed sales describe a market two months old, for the reason at the top of this page. The live listing figures are current, but they are houses that have not sold yet, so they tell you what sellers are doing and not what buyers will agree to. The records also cannot see condition, photos or marketing, and a county figure says nothing definite about any one house.

We are not going to tell you that mortgage rates or inflation caused this, either. October 2023 was a better autumn for sellers here than 2024 or 2025, and rates were higher in 2023 than in either of them. We also set three years of weekly contract counts against the 30 year rate and found no relationship at all. Something is changing in what buyers will agree to. We can show you that it is changing.

Use these numbers. Every figure on this page is ours, counted from the MLS rather than taken from a national average. They are published under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 licence, so anyone may reuse them with credit to the Caplicki Home Team and a link back to this page.

The bottom line

So, is it still hot? Hot enough that the houses keep selling, and for more per square foot every year since 2020. Not hot enough to carry a price that starts above where buyers already are.

This is the lowest October for Orange County sellers in seven years. We were close to here once before, in 2022, and that one mended itself inside a year. This one is four years old and still going.

Which makes the asking price the whole game. Set it where buyers already are and very little of this applies to you.

Orange and Sullivan County NY real estate FAQ

Is the Orange County NY housing market still hot in 2026?

Demand is. Seller pricing power is not. Between January 1 and October 27, 2026, 2,194 single family houses went under contract in Orange County, NY, against 2,131 in 2025 and 2,263 in 2024. Price per square foot rose to about $274 in October from $258 a year earlier. But 46 out of 100 sellers got their full asking price this October, the lowest of the last seven Octobers, against 66 out of 100 at the 2021 peak.

How many Orange County NY houses sell for the asking price?

About 46 out of 100. Of the 207 single family houses that closed in Orange County, NY between October 1 and 27, 2026, 46 out of 100 sold at or above the price they first asked. In October 2025 it was 49, in 2024 it was 55, in 2023 it was 59 and in 2021 it was 66.

Is it still a good time to sell a house in Orange County NY?

Yes, if the asking price is set where buyers already are. Houses in Orange County, NY are still selling, and for more per square foot than in any of the last seven years. But most sellers no longer get the number they ask, and 41 out of 100 houses currently on the market here have already cut their price.

When was the last time Orange County NY sellers had it this hard?

October 2022, when 47 out of 100 got their full asking price and the typical house sold for 98.6 cents on the dollar. That was the autumn mortgage rates first went through 7 percent. The difference is what happened next: 2022 recovered within a year, back to 59 out of 100 in October 2023. The current decline is in its fourth year and has not recovered.

Which Orange County NY houses are losing their asking price?

The most affordable ones. Among Orange County, NY houses asking under $350,000, the share selling at or above the asking price fell to 45 out of 100 this autumn, the lowest of the seven years measured and below where that band stood in 2020. Houses asking $350,000 to $500,000 have been steady at about 61 out of 100 for three years.

How much below asking do houses sell for in Orange County NY?

About 5 percent, which on this year's typical $500,000 asking price is roughly $25,000. That percentage has held steady since 2023. It describes the typical case: the deepest tenth of these sales came down about $101,000 this year, against about $80,000 in 2023.

Are home prices falling in Orange County NY in 2026?

No. Orange County, NY single family houses that closed in October 2026 sold for about $274 per square foot. That figure has risen in every one of the last seven years, from $167 in October 2020, and it did not fall even in 2022. What fell is the share of sellers who got their full asking price.

How does Sullivan County NY compare with Orange County?

Sullivan is a different market and always has been. About 28 out of 100 Sullivan County, NY sellers got their full asking price this autumn, against 49 out of 100 in Orange County on the same measure. Even at the 2021 peak only 45 out of 100 Sullivan sellers got their price, against 68 in Orange. The typical Sullivan house has sold below its asking price in every one of the last seven years.

Are house prices going up in Sullivan County NY?

Yes, and faster than in Orange County. Sullivan County, NY single family houses sold for about $233 per square foot this autumn, against $128 in 2020. That is a rise of roughly 82 percent in six years, against about 64 percent in Orange County over the same stretch.

Is it a good time to sell a house in Sullivan County NY?

It can be, but the asking price has to be set on Sullivan numbers rather than Orange County ones. About 28 out of 100 Sullivan County, NY sellers got their full asking price this autumn, and the typical sale came in at about 95 cents on the dollar. That is normal for this county rather than new. Prices per square foot are also at their highest in the seven years we measured.

How much below asking do houses sell for in Sullivan County NY?

About 8 percent, when a Sullivan County, NY house sells below its asking price. That is noticeably deeper than Orange County, where the typical gap is about 5 percent. It is one of the clearest differences between the two markets and a good reason not to price a Sullivan house on Orange County comparisons.

Why do you not combine Orange and Sullivan County figures?

Because Orange County is roughly four fifths of the sales across the two, so a blended figure describes Orange County and says almost nothing about Sullivan. The two counties also move at different times. Sullivan stepped down in 2025 and has been flat since, while Orange County has kept sliding. We report them separately for that reason.

Did higher mortgage rates cause Orange County sellers to lose their asking price?

We cannot show that they did. Rates bottomed at 5.98 percent in the week of March 3, 2026 and reached 7.40 percent in the week of October 13. But October 2023 saw 59 out of 100 Orange County, NY sellers get their asking price with rates near 7 percent, better than in 2024 and 2025 when money was cheaper. We also set three years of weekly contract counts against the 30 year rate and found no relationship. The timing is worth knowing. The cause is not established.

Did the Federal Reserve lower mortgage rates in October 2026?

No. On October 28, 2026 the Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate steady at 3.75 to 4 percent, after raising it a quarter point in September, its first increase in three years. The Federal Reserve does not set mortgage rates. The 30 year fixed eased from 7.40 percent to 7.32 percent over the same period, which is the first month since March that it did not rise.

How far behind is Orange County NY sale data?

About two months. In Orange County, NY a sale takes 63 days to get from signed contract to closing, and that figure has not moved in four years. So a sale that closed in October was agreed in roughly late July or August. Any report built on closed sales describes the market as it was two months ago. To read the market as it is now you have to look at houses currently for sale.

How many Orange County NY houses have cut their asking price?

As of October 27, 2026 there were 1,041 single family houses for sale in Orange County, NY, and 426 of them, 41 out of every 100, had already cut their asking price. The typical cut was $30,000, about 6 percent.

Are fewer people buying houses in Orange County NY?

Slightly, against a strong 2025. Orange County, NY signed 206 contracts between October 1 and 27, 2026, against 220 in the same days of 2025 and 198 in 2024. For the year to October 27 it is 2,194 contracts against 2,131 last year. Buyers have not left the market.

Should I price high and negotiate down in Orange County NY?

The data says no. Of the single family houses listed in Orange and Sullivan Counties between January 1 and September 30, 2026, the ones priced at or near what houses their size in their school district actually sold for, per square foot, went under contract within 60 days about 4.8 times out of 10. The ones asking 30 to 60 percent above managed it about 3.1 times out of 10. The ones asking 60 percent or more above, about 1.5 times out of 10.

What does it mean when a house sells for 99 cents on the dollar?

It means the typical sale came in just under the asking price. That figure can only sit at a full dollar while at least half of sellers get their whole asking price, so once it slips below, most of them did not. In Orange County, NY it sat at a full dollar in 2020, 2023 and 2024, and has read 99 cents for the last two Octobers.

Where can I see what houses sold for in my school district?

Our Orange County home values page breaks closed sale prices down by school district and town, and is refreshed separately from this page.

How often is this page updated?

Every month, once the newest month of Hudson Valley MLS sales has closed. The byline at the top shows the date of the last refresh.

The Caplicki Home Team is a Keller Williams Hudson Valley United real estate team based in Middletown, NY, serving Orange County and neighbouring Sullivan County, New York. Helping local families buy and sell since 2000. Reach us at 845-237-2368 or brian@caplickihometeam.com. Brian Caplicki is a Licensed Real Estate Associate Broker, New York license 30CA0910752.