By Brian Caplicki · Caplicki Home Team · Updated October 27, 2026 · 12 min read
Price it near what houses your size in your district have actually sold for, per square foot. Of the 4,207 houses that came on the market here between January 1 and September 30, 2026, the ones priced that way found a buyer about 6.1 times out of 10. Orange County and Sullivan County ran at different speeds, so the numbers below are split.
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New data · Updated October 2026 The short version: price near what houses your size in your school district have sold for, per square foot. Houses priced that way found a buyer about 6.1 times out of 10. Houses asking 30 to 60 percent more per square foot managed it about 4.2 times out of 10, and houses asking 60 percent or more per square foot, about 2.7 out of 10. That held in both counties, but Orange County sold faster and closer to asking than Sullivan County did. Based on OneKey MLS data pulled October 27, 2026. All 4,207 single family houses listed in Orange and Sullivan Counties between January 1 and September 30, 2026, followed to that date. Put together by the Caplicki Home Team. |
For prices and guides town by town, see our Orange County, NY homes for sale page.
Of the houses that went up for sale this year, how many have sold?
4,207 houses came on the market in the two counties between January and the end of September. Here is where each one stood on October 27:
- 2,233 found a buyer, 5.3 out of 10. Sold, or under contract and waiting to close. 1,585 of them have already closed, which is 3.8 out of 10 of everything listed, and 648 are under contract right now.
- 1,324 are still on the market, 3.2 out of 10. Some are on their second listing.
- 650 came off the market without selling, 1.5 out of 10.
That hides a real split. Orange County and Sullivan County are not running at the same speed, so here they are apart:
| Houses listed January to September | Orange County | Sullivan County |
|---|---|---|
| Houses | 3,050 | 1,157 |
| Found a buyer | 5.8 out of 10 | 4.1 out of 10 |
| Already closed | 4.2 out of 10 | 2.7 out of 10 |
| Still on the market | 2.7 out of 10 | 4.3 out of 10 |
| Came off unsold | 1.5 out of 10 | 1.6 out of 10 |
| Closed at or above the first asking price | 5.8 out of 10 | 3.5 out of 10 |
| Listing to signed contracts | 31 days | 37 days |
Same source and method as the figures below. Middle values, not averages, for the day counts.
One thing the table does not say outright: houses came off the market unsold at close to the same rate in both counties, 1.5 out of 10 against 1.6 out of 10. Sullivan sellers are not giving up much more often. They are waiting longer.
Under contract is close to done here. We took every house that was under contract five weeks ago and looked again. Of the ones that reached an outcome, more than 9 out of 10 had closed. 23 out of 768 fell apart and came back on the market. New York being an attorney state is part of why. The inspection happens first. Then the attorneys review the contract. Only then does the status change. By the time a house shows as under contract, the fragile part is behind it.
How long does it take to sell?
For the houses that sold: about 32 days from listing to signed contracts, and about 3 months from listing to closing. Orange County ran about a week quicker than Sullivan, 31 days against 37.
The accepted offer comes earlier than that, a week or two in. New York is an attorney state, so after the handshake comes the inspection, then the attorneys draw the contract, and only then does anyone sign. That gap runs about three weeks. The 32 days is what the MLS records. The rest is our own figure from doing these deals, not something in the data.
Those weeks are also the fair way to ask whether the market is slowing, because they do not care when a house was listed. The count of houses that found a buyer does: a September listing has had about 4 weeks to find anyone, and a January listing has had about 10 months.
| Listed in | Houses | Found a buyer | Days to a signed contract | Still on the market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 278 | 6.4 out of 10 | 42 days | 1.5 out of 10 |
| February | 250 | 6.5 out of 10 | 45 days | 1.4 out of 10 |
| March | 446 | 6.4 out of 10 | 36 days | 1.6 out of 10 |
| April | 663 | 6.4 out of 10 | 33 days | 1.8 out of 10 |
| May | 665 | 5.9 out of 10 | 41 days | 2.4 out of 10 |
| June | 566 | 5.7 out of 10 | 36 days | 3.0 out of 10 |
| July | 496 | 4.6 out of 10 | 34 days | 4.1 out of 10 |
| August | 454 | 3.5 out of 10 | 34 days | 5.4 out of 10 |
| September | 389 | 2.1 out of 10 | 25 days | 7.1 out of 10 |
Days to a signed contract is the middle value for the houses in that month that found a buyer. That column compares the months fairly. The "found a buyer" column does not: it flatters January and penalizes September for nothing but the calendar.
Houses listed later in the year did not take longer to sell. A January listing that found a buyer took 42 days to get to signed contracts. A September listing took 25. Measured another way, the share that went under contract inside their first 60 days was 4.1 out of 10 in January and 2.1 out of 10 in September.
That is not the same as saying the market is not slowing. Mortgage rates moved while these houses were on the market. Nothing here can separate what rates did from what sellers did, and the data stops on October 27. What it shows is that houses listed between January 1 and September 30, 2026 went under contract about as quickly in September as they did in January.
Inventory is building a little, but less than the table suggests. The last column makes it look stark: 4.1 out of 10 of the May to September listings are still for sale against 1.6 out of 10 of the January to April ones. Most of that is their age, not the market. Measure it at the same age instead, 85 days after listing, and the gap shrinks to 3.7 out of 10 still for sale against 4.9 out of 10. Real, but small.
Two caveats on the weeks. These describe the houses that sold, and the ones still sitting have been on the market about 3 months with no contract. And a September listing that will take five months to sell cannot show up here yet, which pulls the figure down a little. On the January to April listings alone, where almost everything has finished, it is 33 days rather than 32.
Does it depend on your price range?
More than anything else in this study.
| First asking price | Houses | Found a buyer | Days to a signed contract | Closed at or above the first ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under $350k | 894 | 5.9 out of 10 | 35 days | 4.9 out of 10 |
| $350k to $500k | 1,245 | 5.9 out of 10 | 33 days | 6.3 out of 10 |
| $500k to $700k | 1,056 | 5.5 out of 10 | 37 days | 5.4 out of 10 |
| $700k to $1M | 730 | 4.3 out of 10 | 42 days | 4.1 out of 10 |
| Over $1M | 282 | 2.8 out of 10 | 52 days | 1.8 out of 10 |
Banded by the first asking price, not the sale price. Day counts are middle values among the houses in that band that found a buyer. The last column covers only houses that have closed.
The line is at $700,000 and it is not subtle. Below it, between 5.5 and 5.9 out of 10 houses found a buyer, the middle one inside about five to six weeks. Above it the odds drop at every step: 4.3 out of 10 from $700,000 to $1 million, and 2.8 out of 10 over $1 million. Up there the middle house took 52 days to reach a signed contract, and 5.2 out of 10 are still on the market. Sellers up there also keep the least: 1.8 out of 10 closed at or above their first asking price, against 6.3 out of 10 in the $350,000 to $500,000 band.
Our home values page finds the same line from the other direction. Houses over $700,000 are about a third of what is for sale in Orange County, and under a fifth of what is under contract.
The county gap runs through every bracket and is widest in the middle. From $350,000 to $700,000, Orange County houses found a buyer 6.6 times out of 10 and 5.8 times out of 10, against 3.9 out of 10 and 4.0 out of 10 in Sullivan. The one bracket where Sullivan keeps up is under $350,000, at 4.9 out of 10.
What happens if you ask more than houses your size in your district sold for?
Here is the comparison we trust, because it involves no guessing about what any one house is worth. We took each house's asking price per square foot and set it against what houses its size in its district have actually sold for. The benchmark is the middle closed price per square foot in the same school district and the same size range, over the last eighteen months. Asking price against real sale prices, with nothing predicted in between.
Two things decide which houses yours is measured against, and only two. Your school district, and your size bracket. Every house falls into one of three brackets: up to 1,534 square feet, 1,534 to 2,267, and over 2,267. So your house is set against houses in your district, in your bracket, that have actually closed since April 2025 or are under contract now.
And it is per square foot, not the whole price. Asking 30 percent above does not mean a $400,000 house listed at $520,000. Take Newburgh, middle bracket. 260 houses there have closed or gone under contract since April 2025, and the middle one came in at $252 a square foot. A 1,900 square foot house in that district asking $526,000 is asking about 10 percent above. The same house at $669,000 is about 40 percent above.
| Asking price per square foot, against what houses your size in your district sold for | Houses | Found a buyer |
|---|---|---|
| Below those prices | 935 | 5.8 out of 10 |
| About the same | 1,355 | 6.1 out of 10 |
| 10 to 30 percent above | 954 | 5.5 out of 10 |
| 30 to 60 percent above | 492 | 4.2 out of 10 |
| 60 percent or more above | 419 | 2.7 out of 10 |
Source: OneKey MLS, pulled October 27, 2026. Single family houses listed in Orange and Sullivan Counties, New York from January 1 to September 30, 2026, followed to the pull date. Each house counted once, on its first listing of the year, with the outcome taken from any later listing of the same address. "Found a buyer" means sold or under contract. The benchmark each house is measured against is the middle price per square foot of houses in the same school district and the same size third that have closed since April 2025 or are under contract now. For a closed sale that is the sale price. For a house under contract it is the price a buyer has agreed to, which the MLS still shows as its asking price. 70 groups of 15 transactions or more, 6,022 transactions in all, covering 4,155 of the 4,207 houses. This data cannot see condition, photos or marketing.
The top three rows sit close enough together that we will not try to rank them. A stretch of up to 30 percent above those sale prices cost less than most people expect. Past 30 percent the drop is real, and past 60 percent it is steep.
And if it does sell, how much of your asking price do you keep? The table above is the odds of selling at all. This one is what the sellers who got there kept against their own first number.
| Asking price per square foot, against what houses your size in your district sold for | Closed | Middle sale, against its first ask | Got asking or better | Took more than 5 percent under |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below those prices | 364 | 100 percent | 5.4 out of 10 | 2.7 out of 10 |
| About the same | 609 | 100 percent | 5.7 out of 10 | 1.6 out of 10 |
| 10 to 30 percent above | 371 | 100 percent | 5.2 out of 10 | 2.2 out of 10 |
| 30 to 60 percent above | 154 | 99.8 percent | 5.0 out of 10 | 3.0 out of 10 |
| 60 percent or more above | 71 | 95.9 percent | 2.7 out of 10 | 4.6 out of 10 |
Covers only the houses that have closed. The ones that never sold are not in it, so it understates what a high asking price costs.
Price it in line and you should expect to get your asking price. The middle house priced that way closed at exactly 100 percent of what it first asked. 5.7 out of 10 got asking or better, and 7.3 out of 10 landed within 3 percent of it.
Start high and you keep less of your own number. At 60 percent or more above the sold prices, the middle sale closed at 95.9 percent of the first ask, and 4.6 out of 10 took more than 5 percent under. That is on top of being far less likely to sell at all.
The thing doing the work is the price cut. The 857 houses that never came down off their first number closed at 102.2 percent of it. Pricing right is mostly about not needing the cut.
The first row is the one worth explaining. Pricing below those sale prices did not buy better odds, and that is not because discounting fails. It is because those houses were cheaper for a reason. They are older: the middle one was built in 1959, against 1972 for the houses priced in line, and 5.9 out of 10 went up before 1970 against 4.6 out of 10. The deeper the discount the older the house. Among the 180 asking 35 percent or more below those sale prices, the middle one was built in 1940. They also did not get their asking price any more often than the houses priced in line, 2.1 out of 10 against 2.6 out of 10.
We cannot see condition in this data and a year on a deed is not condition, so read that as a strong hint rather than proof. But it fits what we see in person: a house priced under those sale prices is usually priced for the work it needs, not priced to steal the market.
It holds in both counties. Within 30 percent of the sold prices, Orange County houses found a buyer 6.2 times out of 10 and Sullivan houses 4.5 times out of 10. At 30 percent or more above, 3.7 out of 10 and 3.3 out of 10.
Sullivan sellers reach further above the sold prices, and that is part of why the county's rate is lower. About 3.9 out of 10 Sullivan houses asked 30 percent or more above those sale prices. In Orange it was about 1.6 out of 10. Some of that is fair. Sullivan land is bigger. The middle Sullivan listing sits on about an acre, against about half an acre in Orange. And 24 percent of Sullivan listings are on five acres or more, against 8 percent in Orange. A house genuinely unlike its neighbors will read as expensive per square foot when it is not. That is a reason to get the price set by someone who has been inside the competition, not a reason to ignore the comparison.
Two things this does not say. It is about the odds of finding a buyer, not what you get for it. And the bottom row is the smallest group, 419 houses, so treat it as roughly 3 out of 10 rather than exactly.
A September listing has not had the same run at it as a January one. The window now goes to the end of September, and a house that came on at the end of it has had about 27 days. That pulls the overall rate down for reasons that have nothing to do with price. So we measured every house at the same age instead, 60 days on the market, on the 3,754 that have reached it. The gap is still there and it is still wide. Priced in line, 4.8 out of 10 were under contract inside 60 days. At 10 to 30 percent above those sale prices per square foot, 4.0 out of 10. At 30 to 60 percent above, 3.1 out of 10. At 60 percent or more above, 1.5 out of 10.
If you are selling: what not to price off
Four numbers will be in your head when you set a price. None of them should set it.
- What the house is worth to you. The years you spent in it are real. A buyer is not paying for them.
- An online estimate. It has never been inside. It cannot see a new roof, a finished basement or a view.
- What the house down the street is asking. Asking is not selling. About 4.5 out of 10 of the houses in this study came down off their first number.
- What a neighbor got two years ago. That was a different market. Use the last year or so.
What should set it is what houses your size in your school district have actually sold for per square foot.
Then decide how far above that you want to sit. In line with those sale prices worked best this year. A stretch of 10 to 30 percent cost a little. Past 30 percent it cost real chances, and past 60 percent most of them. And if you are in Sullivan County, plan for a negotiation rather than assuming you will get your number.
And know what your house has that the ones around it do not. A renovated kitchen, a view, waterfront, a new roof. Those are real reasons to ask more per foot, and they are exactly what a spreadsheet cannot see. This is the part where you want someone who has walked through the competition.
The thing worth holding onto: about half the sellers who sold got their full asking price. Pricing right is not giving something away.
If you are buying: what does a house that has sat since spring mean?
Less than you would think, and it depends where you are looking. In Sullivan County sitting is close to normal. In Orange County it is less common, which makes a house that has sat since the spring more worth asking about.
And a price cut does not prove a house was overpriced to begin with. About 4.5 out of 10 of the houses in this study have come down off their first asking price. Houses that started above the sold prices did cut a little more often than houses that started at or below them, 4.8 out of 10 against 4.2 out of 10, but the gap is small. Plenty of fairly priced houses cut too. Judge the house against what houses its size in that district have actually closed at, not against its asking price and not against what it asked in the spring.
What has your school district actually done?
Closed sale prices by district across both counties, going back to 2023. See the district numbers.
What this data cannot tell you
It cannot see condition. There is no field for it, and condition is often the whole difference between two houses at the same price. It cannot see photos or marketing. It cannot tell you why a listing ended, because expired and cancelled are choices in a dropdown, and some of those houses sold another way. It leaves out houses in school districts with too few recent sales to compare against, which is 52 of the 4,207. And it cannot price your house.
What have houses your size in your district sold for?
Start with a free, instant estimate of what your Orange County or Hudson Valley home is worth today. No phone call required, no obligation. When you want a real number from someone who has walked through your competition, call or text the team at 845-237-2368. Here is how we market a listing once the number is set.
Hudson Valley Real Estate FAQ
How should I price my house to sell in Orange County NY?
Price it in line with what houses your size in your school district have actually sold for, per square foot. Of the 4,207 houses that went up for sale in Orange and Sullivan Counties from January through September 2026, the ones priced at or near those sale prices found a buyer about 6.1 times out of 10. The ones asking 30 to 60 percent more per square foot found a buyer about 4.2 times out of 10, and the ones asking 60 percent or more per square foot, about 2.7 times out of 10.
How many houses that went up for sale this year have sold?
Of the 4,207 houses listed in Orange and Sullivan Counties between January 1 and September 30, 2026, 5.3 out of 10 had found a buyer as of October 27. That means sold or under contract. 3.8 out of 10 had already closed. About 3.2 out of 10 were still on the market, and about 1.5 out of 10 had come off the market without selling. The two counties differ: 5.8 out of 10 found a buyer in Orange County and 4.1 out of 10 in Sullivan County.
Is the market slowing down in Orange County NY?
We can answer a narrower question than that one. Among the houses listed in Orange and Sullivan Counties between January 1 and September 30, 2026, the ones that found a buyer took about as long in September as in January. A January listing took 42 days to a signed contract and a September listing took 25. The share under contract inside 60 days was 4.1 out of 10 in January and 2.1 out of 10 in September. So those houses did not sell more slowly as the year went on. What we cannot tell you is whether the market is slowing now. Mortgage rates moved over the same period, and this data cannot separate what rates did from what sellers did. It also stops on October 27, 2026.
Which price range sells best in Orange County NY?
Everything under $700,000. Houses first asking under $350,000 found a buyer 5.9 times out of 10. Houses asking $350,000 to $500,000 managed 5.9 times out of 10, and $500,000 to $700,000 5.5 times out of 10, with the middle house under contract inside about five to six weeks. Above $700,000 the odds fall sharply. From $700,000 to $1 million, 4.3 out of 10 found a buyer. Over $1 million, 2.8 out of 10, and 5.2 out of 10 of those houses are still on the market.
Do houses in Orange County NY sell for their asking price?
About half of the ones that sold got their first asking price or better. Among the 1,585 houses in this group that have closed, the middle house closed at exactly 100 percent of what it first asked. 5.3 out of 10 closed at or above that first number, and 6.8 out of 10 closed within 3 percent of it. In Orange County it was 5.8 out of 10 at or above; in Sullivan County, 3.5 out of 10.
How long does it take to sell a house in Orange County NY?
About 32 days from listing to signed contracts, and about 3 months from listing to closing. The accepted offer comes earlier, a week or two in, because in New York the inspection happens and the attorneys draw the contract before anything is signed. That gap is our figure from doing these deals, not something the MLS records. And these describe the houses that sold: the ones still sitting have been on the market about 3 months.
The Caplicki Home Team is a Keller Williams Hudson Valley United real estate team based in Middletown, NY, serving Orange County, Sullivan County, and the broader Hudson Valley. Helping local families buy and sell since 2000. Selling an inherited house? See our estate and probate sales page, or browse our community pages. Reach us at 845-237-2368 or brian@caplickihometeam.com.
