A little too much barely hurts. A lot too much is a wall. Ask up to 10 percent over the going rate and about 7 in 10 houses still sell. Ask more than 40 percent over and only about 3 in 10 do.
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New data · Updated August 2026 The short version: Start with what houses like yours actually sold for this year. You can go about 10 percent over that and still be fine. Go 40 percent over and only about 3 in 10 of those houses sold at all. From the Hudson Valley MLS. Single family houses in Orange and Sullivan County, NY, January 1 through August 13, 2026. Put together by the Caplicki Home Team. |
Of the houses that went up for sale in January, how many have sold?
We took every house that went up for sale in Orange and Sullivan County in January, February and March. 781 houses. Every one has now had five to seven months. Here is where they are.
About 2 in 3 sold or went under contract.
More than 1 in 8 came off the market without selling at all.
Just over 1 in 5 is still sitting there with the sign up.
Some of those will still sell. Some will not. But nobody puts their house up for sale hoping to wait five months. So we went looking for what made the difference.
How much can you add on top before it hurts?
For every house we worked out the going rate. That means what houses like it actually sold for this year. Same rough size, same age, same size lot, same school district.
We say going rate rather than what the house is worth on purpose. A house that never sells was not worth that number, whatever a calculator says. The going rate is what the neighbors got. What your house is worth depends on things no spreadsheet can see.
Then we lined every house up by how far over the going rate the owner started.
Where the damage actually starts
| What the owner asked | Out of 100 houses, how many sold |
|---|---|
| At or under the going rate, or up to 10 percent over | 71 out of 100 |
| 10 to 20 percent over | 65 out of 100 |
| 20 to 40 percent over | 57 out of 100 |
| More than 40 percent over | 34 out of 100 |
Where this comes from: Hudson Valley MLS. Single family houses in Orange and Sullivan County, NY. The 777 houses that went up for sale in January, February and March 2026 that we had enough information on, so every one of them has had five to seven months on the market. The ones that did not sell are either still sitting there or came off the market. Each house is counted once. Roughly 1 in 6 of these houses is new construction, where builders often price high and wait on purpose. Take those out and the gap gets wider, not narrower. Put together by the Caplicki Home Team.
You can stretch. You cannot reach.
Look at that first row. Owners who asked the going rate and owners who put 8 or 9 percent on top of it ended up in the same place. About 7 out of 10 sold either way.
We will be straight with you. Asking a little too much did not hurt anybody here this year that we can see.
The damage starts around 20 percent over. Past 40 percent over it is a wall. Only about a third of those houses sold at all.
And the ones that did not sell mostly did not fail loudly. They are just sitting there, month after month, with nothing happening.
Does dropping the price fix it?
Here is the part that surprised us most. This one needs no math at all.
Owners who dropped their price and sold came down about $30,000.
Owners who dropped their price and never sold also came down about $30,000.
Same drop. Opposite ending.
So does dropping the price help at all? Yes, quite a lot. Of the houses that sat more than six months, 86 percent of the ones that eventually sold had cut the price. Of the ones that never sold, only 57 percent had.
So the owners who failed were not the ones who came down. They were the ones who did not come down, or who came down from a number that was never close in the first place.
And look where each group had started. The ones that sold had opened about 14 percent over the going rate. The ones that never sold had opened about 29 percent over. Both came down. Only one of them was ever going to come down far enough.
Picture two houses on the same street. Houses like them have been selling for about $500,000.
One goes up for sale at $525,000. The other at $560,000.
Months go by. Nothing happens. Both owners get nervous and both knock 6 percent off.
The first one is now $493,500. That is about the going rate. It sells.
The second is now $526,400. Still way over the going rate. It sits.
Same drop. Same $30,000. The only thing different was where they started.
Will a buyer just make me a low offer?
Almost never anymore. This changed after 2020.
Of the houses that sold here this year, about 7 in 10 sold within 3 percent of what the owner was asking at the time. Only about 1 in 12 sold for more than 10 percent under.
And that is not because owners quietly dropped the price to match an offer. Take only the owners who never once changed their price. 76 percent of them still sold within 3 percent of what they asked.
That is not buyers being nice. That is buyers not bothering.
When a price looks unreasonable, buyers figure the owner is unreasonable too. So they go look at the next house instead of making an offer they think will get thrown back at them.
That is the real problem with asking too much. You do not get a low offer you can work with. You get nothing at all.
Then you drop the price. By then the buyers who were shopping in your range have already bought something else.
If you are selling: how do you pick the number?
Get it right before the sign goes up. Of the houses that sold in the first two weeks, about 8 in 10 got their original asking price or better. Almost none of them had ever touched the price.
Of the houses that took more than six months to sell, hardly any did. The typical one ended up taking 86 percent of what it first asked, and nearly 9 in 10 of those owners had already dropped the price at least once.
So the fast houses got about 2 percent more than they asked for. The slow ones gave up about 14 percent. That whole gap was decided on day one.
You get one first impression. The first two weeks are when the buyers who have been watching your price range for months finally see your house.
Do not pick a number you plan to come down from. The reduction almost always shows up after those buyers are gone.
If you do drop it, drop it far enough. One real drop beats three small ones. Three small drops also tell every buyer watching that a fourth one is coming, so they wait for it.
Price the house you actually have. Get somebody to walk it and tell you the truth about the roof, the windows and the kitchen.
A house priced like the neighbors, when it is not in the same shape as the neighbors, is overpriced. Even though the number looks fine on paper.
And if your house has a strong style, staging it is usually cheaper than the price drop you will be making in October instead.
If you are buying: where is the room?
A price drop is not a deal. It usually means the first number was wrong. Most of those owners came down to a second number that is still wrong.
The question is not whether they came down. It is whether they came down far enough.
If you can shop Sullivan County, you have more room. About 3 out of 4 Sullivan owners sold for less than they first asked, giving up around 9 percent.
In Orange County it is closer to half of owners, giving up around 5 percent. Same Hudson Valley, very different conversation.
A house that has sat for months is not automatically a bargain. Sometimes it is still overpriced. Sometimes it needs work nobody has counted yet. Find out which one before you fall in love with it.
Is Sullivan County different from Orange County?
Not in the rule. In both counties, owners who asked up to 10 percent over the going rate sold about 7 times out of 10. In both counties, owners who asked more than 40 percent over sold about 3 times out of 10. The same line, twice.
What is different is how many owners reach.
In Orange County, 8 out of every 100 owners asked more than 40 percent over the going rate. In Sullivan County it was 24 out of 100. Three times as many.
That is most of the reason Sullivan looks slower. About 67 percent of the Orange County houses sold. About 54 percent of the Sullivan ones did.
But if Sullivan owners had priced the way Orange owners did, Sullivan would have come in around 61 percent. Half of that county gap is the asking prices, not the market.
We are not going to split the table itself county by county. Once you cut 777 houses four ways and then in half again, some of the boxes hold 25 houses, and 25 houses cannot tell you anything reliable. The rule is the same in both places. The habits are not.
What we cannot see
Three things. We would rather tell you than have you find them yourself.
We cannot see the condition of a house. Nothing in our records says whether the kitchen is original or the roof is about to go.
So a house that looks fairly priced here might really be overpriced for the shape it is in. And a house somebody just renovated might look overpriced when it is not.
That works in your favor too. Priced right for the shape it is actually in, a house sells.
We cannot see the marketing either. Bad photos will sink a house that was priced just fine.
And we cannot see where the house sits. A busy road, a hard driveway, a view of the wrong thing. Two houses of the same size and age in the same district are not the same house.
This is why a house that did not sell is not simply a house whose owner was greedy. Some of them had a condition problem, or a location problem, or a marketing problem, and the price was never the thing standing in the way. It was just the only part of it we can measure.
One last thing about the going rate. It comes from comparing hundreds of sales, and it works well across a big group of houses. It cannot tell you about your house on its own. For your house it is a place to start, not the answer.
Should you ask less than your house is worth on purpose?
Some sellers try the opposite of everything above. Here is what actually happened to them. Read it here.
The short answer
The price you pick on day one decides almost everything after it.
The owners who failed this year were not lazy. Most of them were not even stubborn. They dropped their price by the same $30,000 as everybody else.
They just started at a number that $30,000 could not fix.
Thinking about selling in Orange County or Sullivan County this year? The most valuable hour you will spend is the one before the house goes up for sale.
Want to know the right first number for your house?
Get a free estimate of what your Orange County or Sullivan County house is worth right now. No phone call, no obligation. Buying instead? Call the team at 845-656-4498 and we will tell you which houses on your list have real room to negotiate and which ones only look like they do.
Hudson Valley Real Estate FAQ
Why isn't my house selling in Orange County NY?
Usually the price, and usually by a lot rather than a little. Houses asking up to 10 percent over what similar houses were getting still sold about 7 times out of 10. Houses asking more than 40 percent over sold about 3 times out of 10. If you are sure the price is close and the phone still is not ringing, look at the photos next, and then at whether your house is really in the same shape as the ones you priced it against.
How much should I list my house for?
Start from what houses like yours actually sold for this year, not from what you need to walk away with and not from what a website estimated. Then decide how much you are willing to stretch on top, knowing that up to about 10 percent over cost sellers here almost nothing this year, and more than 40 percent over cost them most of their chances.
How much over market value can I list my house for?
More than you would guess at the low end, far less at the high end. Owners who asked up to about 10 percent over the going rate sold about 7 times out of 10, the same as owners who asked the going rate exactly. Past 20 percent over it starts to bite, and past 40 percent over only about 3 in 10 sold at all.
Do price reductions work in the Hudson Valley?
Yes, if you drop far enough. Of the houses that sat more than six months, 86 percent of the ones that eventually sold had cut the price, against only 57 percent of the ones that never sold. But the size of the drop was the same for both, about $30,000. Where they started was not.
Do buyers make lowball offers in Orange County NY in 2026?
Almost never. Of the houses that sold this year, about 7 in 10 sold within 3 percent of what the owner was asking, and only about 1 in 12 sold for more than 10 percent under. When a price looks unreasonable, buyers just go look at the next house. An overpriced house does not get a low offer. It gets nothing.
How long does it take to sell a house in Orange County NY?
It splits in two. Of the houses that sold in the first two weeks, about 8 in 10 got their original asking price or better, and almost none had ever dropped the price. Of the houses that took more than six months, the typical one ended up taking 86 percent of what it first asked, and nearly 9 in 10 of those owners had already dropped the price.
Is there more room to negotiate in Sullivan County than Orange County NY?
Yes, below about $650,000. About 3 out of 4 Sullivan County owners sold for less than they first asked, coming down around 9 percent. In Orange County it is closer to half of owners, coming down around 5 percent. Above $650,000 the two counties look the same.
What does a home valuation from the Caplicki Home Team cost?
Nothing. Use the link on this page for an instant estimate, or reply to any of our emails with your school district and price range. We will send back what houses like yours have actually sold for this year.
The Caplicki Home Team is a Keller Williams HVU real estate team based in Middletown, NY, serving Orange County, Sullivan County, Ulster County, and the broader Hudson Valley. Reach us at 845-656-4498 or brian@caplickihometeam.com.
